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PSAT/NMSQT Math / LEVEL 3 · DIFFICULTY 3/5
Data Analysis: Evidence & Predictions
Use data displays, probability, sampling, rates and units to reason carefully.
Choose a node to explore its lesson.
- MINI QUEST PSAT 3.1Standard Deviation, Center & OutliersRead the lesson
- MINI QUEST PSAT 3.2Dot Plots, Histograms & Frequency TablesRead the lesson
- MINI QUEST PSAT 3.3Scatterplots & Lines of Best FitRead the lesson
- MINI QUEST PSAT 3.4Two-Way Tables & Conditional ProbabilityRead the lesson
- MINI QUEST PSAT 3.5Samples, Population Estimates & LimitsRead the lesson
- MINI QUEST PSAT 3.6Rates, Units & Percent ChangesRead the lesson
STAGE PSAT 3.1 · 8 PRACTICE PROBLEMS · 4 NEW-CONTEXT APPLICATIONS
Standard Deviation, Center & Outliers
Goal: Compare variability, predict how shifts and scaling affect spread, and distinguish effects on mean and median.
Before you begin: Read the problem carefully and use the linked foundation lessons when a term or operation is unfamiliar.
Move the dots. Watch the spread.
This is an exploration example. Its values are separate from your practice question.
Values: 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6. Mean = 4; population standard deviation ≈ 1.15.
Shifting changes the center but keeps the spread. Stretching around the center changes spread but keeps the mean.
Make sense of the idea
Standard deviation describes how far values typically lie from their mean. A tightly packed set has smaller standard deviation than a more spread-out set with the same center. You usually can compare without calculating a formula.
Choose a method
Adding the same constant to every value shifts the mean and median but leaves standard deviation unchanged. Multiplying every value by c multiplies standard deviation by .
Check and interpret
An extreme outlier can pull the mean strongly. The median depends on ordered position and is often less affected. Always compare center and spread separately.
Compare , 7, 8; , 7, 10. Which has greater standard deviation? Enter 1 for A, 2 for B, or 3 if equal.
- Both means are 7. A has distances 1, 0, 1; B has distances 3, 0, 3.
- B is more spread out and has 3 times the standard deviation. Enter 2.
2
Five commute times are 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. Only the largest value is replaced by 56. What is the new median?
- The third value is still 8.
- So the median remains 8, although the mean and spread increase.
8
Common pitfalls
Possible mix-up: A larger mean always means more spread.
Shifting all observations changes the mean without changing spread.
Possible mix-up: Adding 5 to each value adds 5 to the standard deviation.
All distances from the mean stay the same.
Explain it to yourself
In standard deviation, center & outliers, what information determines your method, and how can you check whether your result fits the original conditions?
Preview the eight practice prompts
Compare , 5, 6; , 5, 8. Which has greater standard deviation? Enter 1 for A, 2 for B, or 3 if equal.
Every observation in a data set is increased by 9. The original standard deviation is 2. What is the new standard deviation?
A transformation multiplies every data value by 3. If the original standard deviation is 2, what is the new standard deviation?
A sorted data set is 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. Only the largest value is replaced by 53. What is the new median?
Two teams record , 6, 7; , 6, 9. Which has greater standard deviation? Enter 1 for A, 2 for B, or 3 if equal.
Every temperature reading is increased by 10. The original standard deviation is 3. What is the new standard deviation?
A measurement unit conversion multiplies every data value by 3. If the original standard deviation is 3, what is the new standard deviation?
Five commute times are 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Only the largest value is replaced by 54. What is the new median?
STAGE PSAT 3.2 · 8 PRACTICE PROBLEMS · 4 NEW-CONTEXT APPLICATIONS
Dot Plots, Histograms & Frequency Tables
Goal: Read frequencies and intervals, locate medians from counts, and distinguish what grouped data can and cannot tell you.
Before you begin: Read the problem carefully and use the linked foundation lessons when a term or operation is unfamiliar.
Same observations, different displays
This is an exploration example. Its values are separate from your practice question.
Values: 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6. Mean = 4; population standard deviation ≈ 1.15.
Shifting changes the center but keeps the spread. Stretching around the center changes spread but keeps the mean.
| Interval | Frequency |
|---|---|
| 0 ≤ value < 4 | 3 |
| 4 ≤ value < 8 | 6 |
| 8 ≤ value < 12 | 0 |
Moving a value across an interval boundary changes its bin. The histogram gives counts, but hides exact positions within each bin.
Make sense of the idea
In a dot plot each dot is one observation. Repeated values form stacks. A frequency table records the same information with counts.
Choose a method
A histogram groups numerical values into nonoverlapping intervals. The height gives frequency, not the data value. Read interval endpoints carefully: [10,20) includes 10 but excludes 20.
Check and interpret
Use cumulative counts to locate the median. From grouped counts alone you can identify a median interval, but generally cannot reconstruct an exact mean or each original observation.
A frequency table lists score observations; score observations; score observation. What is the mean score?
- The total count is .
- The sum is , so the mean is .
A delivery-time histogram contains 8 values in [0,10), 10 in [10,20), and 1 in [20,30). Can the EXACT mean be determined from these counts alone? Enter 1 for yes or 0 for no.
- Different raw data sets can produce exactly these same bin counts.
- Their sums, and hence means, can differ. The exact mean is not determined; enter 0.
0
Common pitfalls
Possible mix-up: A bar height is the measurement value.
The horizontal axis gives values or intervals; the height gives frequency.
Possible mix-up: A histogram gives an exact value for each observation.
Grouping loses information within each bin.
Explain it to yourself
In dot plots, histograms & frequency tables, what information determines your method, and how can you check whether your result fits the original conditions?
Preview the eight practice prompts
A frequency table lists score observations; score observations; score observation. What is the mean score?
A dot plot has 2 dots at 3, 3 at 5, and 2 at 8. What is the median?
A histogram has 4 observations in [0,10), 6 in [10,20), and 8 in [20,30). How many observations are at least 10?
Histogram: intervals include the left endpoint and exclude the right A histogram contains 5 values in [0,10), 7 in [10,20), and 1 in [20,30). Can the EXACT mean be determined from these counts alone? Enter 1 for yes or 0 for no.
Histogram: intervals include the left endpoint and exclude the right A reading lists score observations; score observations; score observation. What is the mean score?
A dot plot of daily visits has 2 dots at 4, 3 at 6, and 2 at 9. What is the median?
A histogram of wait times has 5 observations in [0,10), 7 in [10,20), and 9 in [20,30). How many observations are at least 10?
Histogram: intervals include the left endpoint and exclude the right A delivery-time histogram contains 6 values in [0,10), 8 in [10,20), and 1 in [20,30). Can the EXACT mean be determined from these counts alone? Enter 1 for yes or 0 for no.
Histogram: intervals include the left endpoint and exclude the right
STAGE PSAT 3.3 · 8 PRACTICE PROBLEMS · 4 NEW-CONTEXT APPLICATIONS
Scatterplots & Lines of Best Fit
Goal: Describe scatterplot trends, use a fitted line to predict, interpret residuals, and compare linear with exponential patterns.
Before you begin: Read the problem carefully and use the linked foundation lessons when a term or operation is unfamiliar.
A fitted line follows the pattern
Five observations, with a least-squares fitted line . Drag the input control to predict a value.
Predicted y = 4.6. This input is within the observed range: interpolation.
At , the observed value is 4 and the prediction is 4.6. Residual = : that dot is below the fitted line.
Read the paired observations
| x | Observed y | Predicted y |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 4 | 3.4 |
| 3 | 4 | 4.6 |
| 4 | 6 | 5.8 |
| 5 | 7 | 7 |
Make sense of the idea
Each scatterplot point is one paired observation (x,y). A positive trend rises overall as x increases; it does not require every point to lie exactly on a line.
Choose a method
A fitted line follows the overall pattern and balances deviations; it need not pass through the origin or every point. In y = mx + b, m is the predicted change in y for one extra x-unit.
Check and interpret
A residual is observed y minus predicted y. Prediction within the observed x-range is interpolation; going outside it is extrapolation and needs caution. Equal differences suggest a linear pattern; equal positive ratios suggest an exponential one.
A fitted line is . What y-value does it predict at ?
- ŷ = .
- The predicted value is 23; an actual observation may differ.
23
A scatterplot model was built using x-values from 6 to 16. Predicting at is which type? Enter 1 for interpolation or 2 for extrapolation.
- 26 is larger than the observed maximum 16.
- This is extrapolation (2); the same trend may not continue outside the observed range.
2
Common pitfalls
Possible mix-up: A best-fit line must pass through every point.
Real data usually scatter around it.
Possible mix-up: A positive residual means the model predicted too much.
It means the observation is above the prediction.
Explain it to yourself
In scatterplots & lines of best fit, what information determines your method, and how can you check whether your result fits the original conditions?
Preview the eight practice prompts
A fitted line is . What y-value does it predict at ?
A fitted model is . At , the observed y is 20. Find the residual (observed minus predicted).
A data table has ,1,2,3 and ,4,8,16. Which model fits this exact pattern: 1 for linear or 2 for exponential?
Paired observations from this question x 0 1 2 3 y 2 4 8 16 A fitted line was built using x-values from 3 to 13. Predicting at is which type? Enter 1 for interpolation or 2 for extrapolation.
A scatterplot of study time and practice scores has fitted line . What y-value does it predict at ?
A delivery-time model is . At , the observed y is 21. Find the residual (observed minus predicted).
A growth record has ,1,2,3 and ,6,12,24. Which model fits this exact pattern: 1 for linear or 2 for exponential?
Paired observations from this question x 0 1 2 3 y 3 6 12 24 A scatterplot model was built using x-values from 4 to 14. Predicting at is which type? Enter 1 for interpolation or 2 for extrapolation.
STAGE PSAT 3.4 · 8 PRACTICE PROBLEMS · 4 NEW-CONTEXT APPLICATIONS
Two-Way Tables & Conditional Probability
Goal: Use a two-way frequency table to choose the correct denominator for joint, marginal and conditional probabilities.
Before you begin: Read the problem carefully and use the linked foundation lessons when a term or operation is unfamiliar.
First choose who can be selected
| Club | Bus | Walk | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| B | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| Total | 9 | 11 | 20 |
Only the 10 club A members can be selected. Probability = .
The phrase “given” changes the denominator. The table itself has not changed.
Make sense of the idea
A two-way table classifies each person by two categories. Each inner cell belongs to one row and one column. Row and column totals are marginal counts.
Choose a method
A joint probability asks for both properties: use the intersection cell divided by the grand total. A marginal probability uses a row or column total divided by the grand total.
Check and interpret
A conditional probability restricts the sample space first. “Given the person is in Group A” means divide by the Group A total, not by all people. Reverse conditions generally give different probabilities.
A two-way table gives club A: bus 4, walk 6; club B: bus 5, walk 7. Given a student is in club A, what is the probability they take the bus? Enter a fraction.
| Club | Bus | Walk | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| B | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| Total | 9 | 13 | 22 |
- Club A contains 10 students and 4 take the bus.
- The conditional probability is .
A transport survey gives club A: bus 8, walk 6; club B: bus 5, walk 7. Given that a student takes the bus, what is the probability they are in club A?
| Club | Bus | Walk | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| B | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| Total | 13 | 13 | 26 |
- The bus group has 13 students, of whom 8 are in club A.
- P(A given bus) = .
Common pitfalls
Possible mix-up: Every probability uses the grand total.
Conditional probability uses the total of the given group.
Possible mix-up: P(A given B) equals P(B given A).
Their denominators differ unless special counts happen to make them equal.
Explain it to yourself
In two-way tables & conditional probability, what information determines your method, and how can you check whether your result fits the original conditions?
Preview the eight practice prompts
A two-way table gives club A: bus 2, walk 4; club B: bus 3, walk 5. Given a student is in club A, what is the probability they take the bus? Enter a fraction.
The counts from this question Club Bus Walk Total A 2 4 6 B 3 5 8 Total 5 9 14 A two-way table gives club A: bus 3, walk 4; club B: bus 6, walk 5. A student is selected from ALL students. What is the probability of club B AND walking?
The counts from this question Club Bus Walk Total A 3 4 7 B 6 5 11 Total 9 9 18 A two-way table gives club A: bus 4, walk 2; club B: bus 3, walk 6. What is the probability a randomly selected student walks, regardless of club?
The counts from this question Club Bus Walk Total A 4 2 6 B 3 6 9 Total 7 8 15 A two-way table gives club A: bus 5, walk 3; club B: bus 2, walk 4. Given that a student takes the bus, what is the probability they are in club A?
The counts from this question Club Bus Walk Total A 5 3 8 B 2 4 6 Total 7 7 14 A survey gives club A: bus 3, walk 5; club B: bus 4, walk 6. Given a student is in club A, what is the probability they take the bus? Enter a fraction.
The counts from this question Club Bus Walk Total A 3 5 8 B 4 6 10 Total 7 11 18 A travel survey gives club A: bus 4, walk 5; club B: bus 7, walk 6. A student is selected from ALL students. What is the probability of club B AND walking?
The counts from this question Club Bus Walk Total A 4 5 9 B 7 6 13 Total 11 11 22 A school survey gives club A: bus 5, walk 3; club B: bus 4, walk 7. What is the probability a randomly selected student walks, regardless of club?
The counts from this question Club Bus Walk Total A 5 3 8 B 4 7 11 Total 9 10 19 A transport survey gives club A: bus 6, walk 4; club B: bus 3, walk 5. Given that a student takes the bus, what is the probability they are in club A?
The counts from this question Club Bus Walk Total A 6 4 10 B 3 5 8 Total 9 9 18
STAGE PSAT 3.5 · 8 PRACTICE PROBLEMS · 4 NEW-CONTEXT APPLICATIONS
Samples, Population Estimates & Limits
Goal: Estimate population counts or totals from random sample statistics and explain why the estimate is not an exact census.
Before you begin: Read the problem carefully and use the linked foundation lessons when a term or operation is unfamiliar.
Make sense of the idea
A population is the complete group of interest. A sample is a subset. A random sample can help estimate a population proportion or mean, but it still has sampling variability.
Choose a method
Estimate a population count by sample proportion × population size. Estimate a population total by sample mean × population size. Keep units consistent.
Check and interpret
A larger random sample usually gives a more stable estimate, but size alone does not repair a biased selection method. A survey only of volunteers at a sports club need not represent the whole school.
A researcher randomly samples 50 of 1100 residents; 12 use an audiobook service. Use the sample proportion to estimate the number of users in the population.
- The sample proportion is .
- The estimated count is . This is an estimate, not a census.
264
A school report estimates of a population prefers option A, using a random sample rather than a census. Must EXACTLY of the population prefer A? Enter 1 for yes or 0 for no.
- The figure is a sample-based estimate.
- Sampling variability means the population proportion need not equal it exactly. Enter 0.
0
Common pitfalls
Possible mix-up: An estimated count is the exact count.
Random sampling still varies; only measuring the full population gives a census count.
Possible mix-up: A large biased sample must be representative.
Who is selected matters as well as how many.
Explain it to yourself
In samples, population estimates & limits, what information determines your method, and how can you check whether your result fits the original conditions?
Preview the eight practice prompts
A researcher randomly samples 50 of 1000 residents; 10 use an audiobook service. Use the sample proportion to estimate the number of users in the population.
A random sample has mean mass 8 grams. There are 120 parcels in the population. Estimate the total mass in grams.
For a schoolwide estimate, 30 volunteers from a sports club are surveyed. Does this method give a random sample of the WHOLE school? Enter 1 for yes or 0 for no.
A sample report estimates of a population prefers option A, using a random sample rather than a census. Must EXACTLY of the population prefer A? Enter 1 for yes or 0 for no.
A town library randomly samples 50 of 1050 residents; 11 use an audiobook service. Use the sample proportion to estimate the number of users in the population.
A random sample of parcels has mean mass 9 grams. There are 130 parcels in the population. Estimate the total mass in grams.
To estimate schoolwide exercise habits, 31 volunteers from a sports club are surveyed. Does this method give a random sample of the WHOLE school? Enter 1 for yes or 0 for no.
A school report estimates of a population prefers option A, using a random sample rather than a census. Must EXACTLY of the population prefer A? Enter 1 for yes or 0 for no.
STAGE PSAT 3.6 · 8 PRACTICE PROBLEMS · 4 NEW-CONTEXT APPLICATIONS
Rates, Units & Percent Changes
Goal: Track units in rates, square or cube length-conversion factors, and distinguish relative percent from percentage points.
Before you begin: Read the problem carefully and use the linked foundation lessons when a term or operation is unfamiliar.
Make sense of the idea
A conversion factor equals one in different units. Multiply so unwanted units cancel. A length conversion factor must be squared for area and cubed for volume.
Choose a method
A percent change is measured relative to a base: new = old × (1 ± rate). To recover the old amount, divide the new amount by the factor.
Check and interpret
Percentage points subtract two percentages directly. Relative percent change divides that difference by the old percentage. Successive percent changes multiply their factors.
Convert to cm². Enter only the number.
- cm² = 10,000 cm².
- cm².
40000
A survey approval rate rises from to . What is the increase in PERCENTAGE POINTS?
- percentage points.
- The relative percent increase would instead be , which is a different question.
10
Common pitfalls
Possible mix-up: One square meter is 100 square centimeters.
Each side contributes a factor of 100; it is 10,000 cm².
Possible mix-up: Increasing then decreasing by the same percent restores the original.
The second change uses a different base. Multiply both factors.
Explain it to yourself
In rates, units & percent changes, what information determines your method, and how can you check whether your result fits the original conditions?
Preview the eight practice prompts
Convert to cm². Enter only the number.
Convert 2 cm³ to mm³. Enter only the number.
An item costs $80 after discount. What was its original price in dollars?
A percentage rises from to . What is the increase in PERCENTAGE POINTS?
A garden covers . How many square centimeters is that?
A container holds 3 cm³. How many cubic millimeters is that?
A jacket costs $88 after discount. What was its original price in dollars?
A survey approval rate rises from to . What is the increase in PERCENTAGE POINTS?

